How Will The Cardinals Handle Their Rotation Option
The coming offseason figures to be a tumultuous one for the Cardinals. Coming off a second consecutive season where the club mi sed the playoffs, St. Louis bra s have already announced that significant changes are coming, headlined by Chaim Bloom to take over baseball operations following the 2025 season (with a larger role in the meantime) and the club planning to as they figure to bring back few if any of their departing veteran players. While headlines the list of players who
Johnny Boychuk Jersey appear likely to don another uniform in 2025, whats not yet clear is what the club intends to do about its starting rotation. that the club could shop staff ace this winter as they look to trim payroll and focus on developing young players, and if Gray were to be moved that would leave only struggling veteran , oft-injured swingman , breakout youngster , and deadline acquisition as rotation options on guaranteed contracts for 2025. With some interesting young arms such as Michael McGreevey, , and in the wings as potential contributors next year, its not hard to imagine St. Louis getting solid enough production from its internal options. With that being said, however, their current rotation picture offers very little certainty, especially should Gray wind up pitching elsewhere next year. After all, even Pallante and Fedde lack track records of succe s in a big league rotation that go beyond the current season. Fortunately, the Cards have not one but two options available to them that could help raise the floor on their 2025 rotation at a relatively cheap price: and . The veteran hurlers will play at ages 37 and 38 respectively next year, but both posted solid results as back-end rotation options for the club this year and come with identical $12MM club options (with $1MM buyouts) for 2025. Given the clubs focus on the future and desire to trim payroll, it would be something of a surprise if both options were exercised. Given the many similarities between the two veteran Midwest natives, its fair to wonder which of the two hurlers would be a better choice for the Cardinals to retain next year, and which one they should send into free agency. Of the two, retaining Lynn would surely offer a higher ceiling. The veteran hurler pitched the first six seasons of his career in St. Louis as a perfectly capable mid-rotation arm, but had a late-career breakout with the Rangers and White Sox that saw him pitch like a true top-of-the-rotation ace: from 2019 to 2021, Lynn posted a strong 3.26 ERA that was 46% better than league average with a 3.39 FIP and a 27.5% strikeout rate. He also enjoyed slightly better results than Gibson did this year, with advantages in ERA (3.84 vs 4.24), FIP (4.31 vs 4.42), and strikeout rate (21.3% vs 20.9%). For a club thats likely to rely primarily on internal improvements in order to maintain hopes of contending for a playoff spot in 2025, theres an argument to be made that Lynns ceiling and stronger results this season make him the smarter choice to retain going forward. Thats not to say there isnt a case to be made for Gibson, however. While the 12-year MLB veteran has never flashed the ceiling Lynn did during his peak, Gibson is more dependable in some ways. The groundballer rarely mi ses time due to injury, having made at least 29 starts in nine of his ten full seasons in the majors. By contrast, Lynn was limited to just 21 starts in 2022 and 23 starts this year by knee i sues. Whats more, even as Lynn posted stronger overall numbers with the Cardinals this year, certain underlying metrics actually painted a much le s clear picture: Gibsons 4.44 SIERA is nearly identical to Lynns 4.40 figure, while Gibson actually wins on both xERA (4.90 vs 4.93) and xFIP (4.19 vs 4.39) thanks in part to a much stronger grounder rate (44.8% vs 36.3%). While Gibsons ceiling may not be as high as Lynns his reliability could be particularly valuable for a club that figures to rely heavily on young arms who may not yet be ready for a full seasons workload next year, and his comparable expected metrics call into question just how much of an advantage Lynn really has in terms of run prevention. Of course, its also worth noting that the club could choose a third option and decline both club options in hopes of finding similar production at a lower cost in free agency. It would be a risky choice to make given the rising costs of pitching in recent years, but a back-end arm like , , or could theoretically be had at a lower price than either veterans club option depending on how this winters market shakes out. Of course, any player available at that price point would surely have flaws of their own. How should the Cardinals handle their upcoming club options in the rotation? Have your say in the poll below: Which Option Should The Cardinals Pick Up This Winter? Decline Both Options In Hopes Of A Better Deal In Free Agency 51.42% (1,824votes) Pick Up Kyle Gibson's Option 36.37% (1,290votes) Pick Up Lance Lynn's Option 12.21% (433votes) Total Votes: 3,547
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